When Fundrise’s Innovation Fund (VCX) listed on the NYSE on March 19, 2026, its internet asset worth was $18.97 a share. Inside days, retail buyers momentarily bid the value above $400. That is greater than 20X NAV, a premium so wealthy it made 1999 look accountable.
As a shareholder locked up till September 14, 2026 (unclear whether or not shareholders can promote on 14 or after), I’ve had a entrance row seat to the entire spectacle. I wrote concerning the psychology of that have in my companion publish: What It is Like To Be A Startup Worker With A 6-Month Lockup.
This publish is concerning the math – calculating VCX’s NAV estimate. As a result of no matter what the share worth does primarily based on retail sentiment, the NAV offers the bottom case, basic state of affairs of what the shares are actually price.
Estimating a closed-end enterprise fund’s NAV takes three primary steps. Let me present you ways, so you’ll be able to run the numbers your self at any time when a brand new funding spherical hits the headlines. I’ve tried to mannequin the VCX’s NAV conservatively to reduce disappointment and hopefully shock on the upside when the lockup ends.
Notice: Within the first model, I incorrectly assumed Anthropic was valued at $180 billion on Fundrise’s books (late 2025 valuation) when it made up 20.7% of VCX. In actuality, Anthropic was valued at nearer to $350 billion (Feb 2026 Collection G) on the time of VCX’s itemizing.
VCX NAV Estimate Step 1: Calculate The Dilution-Adjusted Markup For Every Holding
When an organization raises at a brand new valuation, you’ll be able to’t simply divide the brand new post-money valuation by the previous one. New cash dilutes present shareholders, together with VCX.
Take Anthropic. At VCX’s $19/share itemizing NAV, roughly 20.7% of the fund was in Anthropic at a ~$350 billion valuation (Feb 2026, Collection G). Anthropic then raised $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation in Could 2026 after itemizing. Subtract the brand new cash and the pre-money valuation is $900 billion. So present shares marked up 2.57X, not 2.76X. Nonetheless a spectacular lead to a matter of months, however it’s at all times good to attempt to be extra exact when actual cash is at stake.
One piece of vocabulary earlier than we proceed, as a result of it journeys individuals up. A 2.57X markup means the place is now price 2.57 occasions what it was. In different phrases, it GREW by 1.57X its unique worth. Maintain that distinction in thoughts, as a result of it is key to Step 2.
Run the identical math throughout the highest holdings:
- Anthropic: $350 billion to $900 billion pre-money = 2.57X markup (grew by 1.57X)
- OpenAI: ~$500 billion to $730 billion pre-money after elevating $122 billion, with a focused September IPO above $1 trillion = ~1.5X markup now, ~1.9X by lockup expiration (grew by ~0.9X)
- Anduril: $30.5 billion to $56 billion pre-money after its $5 billion Collection H = 1.84X markup (grew by 0.84X)
- Databricks: $134 billion to $175 billion if the rumored spherical closes = 1.31X markup (grew by 0.31X)
- SpaceX: now public after its June IPO and marked to market each day = ~1.8X markup on the fund’s prior carrying worth (grew by ~0.8X)
Fortunately, we will simply enter these publicly reported figures into AI to assist us make the calculation. Nonetheless, even nonetheless, that you must assessment the work.
VCX NAV Calculation Step 2: Multiply Every Progress A number of By Its Portfolio Weight
A 2.57X markup on a 1% place is a rounding error. A 2.57X markup on a 20.7% place is important. The formulation is:
NAV development contribution = portfolio weight X (markup a number of minus 1)
Why minus 1? As a result of the unique place is already sitting contained in the $19 beginning NAV. You solely add the expansion, not the entire new worth.
Anthropic’s slice of the fund at itemizing was 20.7% of $19, or $3.93 per VCX share. After a 2.57X markup, that slice is price $10.11. However the fund does not acquire $10.11, as a result of it already had the $3.93. The brand new worth created is $10.11 minus $3.93, or $6.18 per share. And $6.18 divided by $19 equals 32.5%, which is precisely 20.7% X 1.57.
Multiply by 2.57 as an alternative of 1.57 and you would be counting the unique stake twice.
Now run the highest holdings by means of the formulation:
- Anthropic: 20.7% X 1.57 = +32.5% to NAV all by itself
- OpenAI with a September IPO: 10% X 0.9 = +9%
- Anduril: 7% X 0.84 = +5.9%
- Databricks: 17.5% X 0.31 = +5.4%
- SpaceX: 5% X 0.8 = +4%
- Remainder of the portfolio (Ramp, Canva, and others) at a modest 12% development: +4.8%
Add up all six contributions and also you get ~62% complete NAV development, which takes $19 to roughly $31. Anthropic’s 32.5 factors symbolize about 53% of that development. In different phrases, of each greenback of latest worth VCX created since itemizing, roughly 53 cents got here from one firm. This ought to be each thrilling and regarding.
Thrilling, as a result of VCX has successfully been a concentrated guess on Anthropic, and up to now that guess has paid off spectacularly. Regarding, as a result of if Anthropic stumbles, VCX’s NAV development will sluggish and even decline. Focus cuts each methods.
The optimist’s counter is that the remainder of the portfolio has large upside too, and it hasn’t totally proven up within the marks but. Anduril, for instance, is seeing secondary market demand at virtually double its newest funding spherical valuation. If even one or two extra holdings go on an Anthropic-like run, at this time’s garnish turns into tomorrow’s most important course.
Step 3: Stack The Contributions In {Dollars} Per Share
Begin at $19 and add all of it up.
The maths factors to a NAV of roughly $31/share proper when the VCX lockup expires on September 14, 2026.
Here is how the estimate evolves throughout three time frames for 2026 alone. All NAV estimates are primarily based on reported fundraising valuations and anticipated IPO pricing, not on secondary market exercise or the place shares would possibly commerce after itemizing.
At present (July 2026): ~$29/share. Anthropic’s Collection H closed in late Could, so the markup ought to already be mirrored within the fund’s newest marks, together with SpaceX buying and selling publicly.
Lockup expiration (September 14, 2026): ~$31/share. This assumes the Databricks spherical closes and OpenAI completes its focused September IPO at round $1 trillion. Notice: It isn’t clear whether or not shareholders can promote on September 14 or after September 15.
Yr-end 2026: ~$33-$38/share, with $40 in play. Anthropic has filed confidentially to go public. If it costs anyplace close to its final spherical with even a modest pop, that single place provides a number of extra {dollars} of NAV due to its focus.
In fact, the bear case exists too. If AI sentiment cracks earlier than the marks get taken, if Databricks does not shut, and if the IPO window slams shut, NAV sits nearer to $27-$30. After dwelling by means of the 2000 dot-com bust from a Wall Avenue buying and selling desk, I refuse to mannequin solely sunshine. Then once more, if the IPO window is closed, this makes VCX extra useful.
What If Anthropic Turns into A $2 Or $3 Trillion Firm?
Now let’s dream somewhat larger, as a result of I really assume Anthropic might be sturdy when it IPOs. The corporate crossed a $47 billion income run-rate earlier this yr. On this market, I might see Anthropic changing into a $2 trillion firm in 2027 and a $3 trillion firm in 2028. Nvidia and Apple have proven the market has no downside paying up for dominant compounders.
Is that my base case? No. A $2 trillion valuation in 2027 implies roughly 40X the present income run-rate. However after watching Anthropic go from $350 billion to $965 billion in a matter of months, I’ve discovered to not cap my creativeness at what feels cheap. Anthropic’s income might develop to a $100 billion run fee in 2027, making a 20X income a number of extra cheap.
Anthropic’s slice of the fund at VCX itemizing was price $3.93 per VCX share (20.7% of $19). That $3.93 is the seed that compounds:
- At $965 billion at this time: $3.93 X 2.57 = $10.11/share. Anthropic alone is now price greater than half of what your entire fund was price at itemizing.
- At $2 trillion in 2027 (~5.5X after dilution): ~$22/share from Anthropic alone
- At $3 trillion in 2028 (~8.2X after dilution): ~$32/share from Anthropic alone
Layer in the remainder of the portfolio persevering with to compound, with OpenAI public, Databricks marked up, Anduril rising into the protection increase, and SpaceX buying and selling, then subtract the ~1.85% annual administration charge, and the estimates seem like this:
- Finish of 2027: ~$40 to $49/share
- Finish of 2028: ~$52 to $68/share
From an $18.97 itemizing NAV, that might be a 3X+ in beneath three years. With out paying a single greenback of premium.
However discover what else occurs. At $2 trillion, Anthropic is roughly 48% of the fund. At $3 trillion, about 54%, assuming no development within the different holdings. In fact, that’s unlikely. If Fundrise trims the place to rebalance, the NAV stays the identical however the future torque drops. The opposite positions ought to proceed to develop too.
In the meantime, there’s additionally a state of affairs wherein Anthropic grows to be price excess of $3 trillion earlier than 2028, given its huge complete addressable market (TAM). And why not? Google’s market capitalization is at present round $4.5 trillion, and AI is already cannibalizing Google’s core search promoting enterprise.
The Premium Is The Danger, Much less So The Portfolio
Here is the ultimate dose of humility each VCX shareholder wants. The NAV rising over 60% and the share worth falling greater than 80% from its peak are each true on the similar time.
VCX is a closed-end fund. There isn’t any creation-and-redemption mechanism tethering the value to NAV. Retail buyers who paid 20X NAV weren’t shopping for a portfolio. They have been shopping for a lottery ticket on shortage, since VCX was one of many solely methods the general public might personal Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX in a single public ticker.
That shortage is now on a countdown clock. SpaceX is already public. OpenAI is focusing on 4Q2026 to IPO. Anthropic has filed confidentially and will listing on the finish of 2026, or 2027. Each IPO provides buyers a manner to purchase every firm immediately, so the premium ought to naturally erode over time, until VCX continues to put money into the following promising personal AI firm.
The important thing phrase is “over time,” as a result of the sequencing issues enormously. The longer VCX’s holdings keep personal, the longer the shortage premium survives. For this reason the Databricks CEO publicly guiding towards a 2027 IPO as an alternative of 2026 is welcome information for shareholders. Databricks is the fund’s second largest holding, and yearly it stays personal is one other yr VCX stays one of many solely tickets to the present.
Anthropic is the fascinating wildcard. If it IPOs after the September 14 lockup expires, I think the premium ought to proceed. An Anthropic debut at ~$1 trillion might get bid up towards $2 trillion given the demand and basic development. That might ship VCX’s NAV upward and reignite enthusiasm for the fund on the precise second shareholders can lastly promote.
So when the lockup releases its wave of latest provide, the larger query will not be what the NAV is. It will likely be what premium of NAV the market remains to be prepared to pay, and the way shortly the IPO calendar dismantles the shortage that premium is constructed on.
My math says the NAV retains climbing. It says nothing concerning the premium.
Modeling In Mania Is Tough
By no means in my wildest goals did I feel VCX would go up 3X, 5X, 10X, 20X publish itemizing, given I give attention to fundamentals. Additional, as a FIRE investor with out a regular paycheck, I can’t afford to be too flawed. However retail enthusiasm is a variable buyers should now take into account. We noticed it with meme inventory mania in 2021, and the Reddit military has solely grown since. There’s precedent.
Since VCX’s itemizing in March 2026, hyper AI enthusiasm has cooled, as seen within the share costs of hyperscalers akin to Google, Meta, and Microsoft. Microsoft faces extra of a long-term structural query, given the concern amongst software program buyers that AI will make conventional software program irrelevant. As a long-term investor, I view releasing steam as a GOOD factor for sustainability. It is good to see these names recovering.
The most important catalyst that would reignite VCX mania is Anthropic going public AFTER VCX’s lockup expires. Sitting right here in San Francisco, I am 90% sure the hype for an Anthropic IPO might be uncontrolled. I received an ideal glimpse of AI IPO mania through the Spring 2026 San Francisco housing promoting season. It might find yourself probably the most in-demand IPO in historical past. In that state of affairs, demand for VCX ought to surge together with it.
And there’s precedent for the way excessive VCX can fly. It hit $380 in March (greater intraday) and over $250 in Could. In the meantime, Anthropic will probably be extra useful in October 2026 and past than it was within the spring, because of continued development. Similar retail depth plus an even bigger underlying asset means mania might conceivably bid VCX even greater than earlier than.
Estimating What Might Occur With Anthropic IPO and VCX NAV
I assign a 65% probability the Anthropic IPO comes after the VCX lockup. If it does, I put the percentages of retail mania returning at 70%. If Anthropic lists earlier than the lockup, I assign solely a 15% probability of mania, dependent totally on how properly Anthropic trades publish itemizing.
Within the no-mania situations, I anticipate VCX to easily commerce round its estimated NAV, plus or minus 15%. Mix all of it collectively and I get roughly a 46% probability of one other mania-driven premium. A coin flip on fireworks, with a rising NAV because the comfort prize. I am going to take these odds.
Replace: The Blue Sky State of affairs: A $5 Trillion Anthropic
Coincidentally, the afternoon after publishing this publish on July 15, 2026, Bloomberg and CNBC reported that Anthropic’s bankers at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are scheduling investor conferences over the approaching weeks, with an IPO doable as quickly as October. If that timeline holds, Anthropic goes public AFTER the VCX lockup expires in mid-September. That is the precise sequencing I assigned a 65% likelihood to earlier, and it simply received extra probably.
Just a few sections in the past, I known as a $2 trillion Anthropic by 2027 a stretch and $3 trillion by 2028 a dream. However between the confidential submitting, the banker conferences, secondary markets already implying a $1.2 trillion valuation, and Google sitting at $4.5 trillion whereas AI eats its search enterprise, I hold asking myself the identical uncomfortable query: what if my dream state of affairs is someone else’s base case?
So this is the blue sky model, the place all the pieces goes proper directly. Anthropic IPOs in October, trades towards $2 trillion by year-end on frenzied demand, then compounds to $3 trillion in 2027 and $5 trillion by 2028 as income races previous a $150 billion run fee. OpenAI IPOs in 2027 and climbs to $3 trillion by 2028. Anduril raises at $75 billion, IPOs at $150 billion, and hits $250 billion on the protection increase. Databricks closes its spherical, IPOs round $300 billion, and reaches $450 billion. SpaceX recovers and grinds towards $3 trillion.
You already know from the earlier part {that a} $3 trillion Anthropic is price ~$32 per VCX share. Within the blue sky, that milestone merely arrives a yr early. The brand new quantity is the large one: at $5 trillion in 2028, Anthropic contributes ~$54/share all by itself, practically triple what your entire fund was price at itemizing.
Stack the extra aggressive development from all the pieces else on high, subtract charges, and the blue sky NAV development appears like this:
Roughly $42 by year-end 2026, $65 by year-end 2027, and $98 by year-end 2028. A 5X from the itemizing NAV in beneath three years, with the NAV knocking on $100 earlier than paying a greenback of premium. And if retail mania returns on high of a rising NAV, properly, something can occur.
Now for the chilly bathe. A $5 trillion Anthropic in 2028 would make it probably the most useful firm on earth, and even a $150 billion income run fee would indicate a 33X gross sales a number of. I might assign this state of affairs possibly a 15% likelihood. Then once more, firms akin to Google, Apple, and Nvidia might simply grow to be extra useful over the following three years too, elevating the ceiling for everybody.
Blue sky situations are the rationale why you maintain on to at the least a portion of a profitable place as an alternative of promoting all the pieces the second your lockup ends. You possibly can’t seize an final result you by no means let your self personal. Something can occur.
A Potential Splendid State of affairs
Given my shares are locked up anyway, my ultimate setup is perverse: VCX dips under my ~$31 conservative estimated NAV (~$40 practical greatest case), I accumulate extra, and THEN the market learns for certain the Anthropic IPO is coming in October or later after lockup, reigniting mania and boosting the value to $100+. Purchase the basics, get the frenzy without spending a dime.
The opposite X issue is the potential upside from each VCX holding outdoors of Anthropic, OpenAI, Anduril, and Databricks. One or two of those firms might develop a lot sooner than anticipated, simply as Anthropic got here from behind to surpass OpenAI. At one level, OpenAI was VCX’s largest holding at roughly 20%, whereas Anthropic had solely a couple of 5% weighting.
It is fascinating to sport out upside situations with a plan. However no matter occurs, I am completely happy if VCX merely trades round its estimated NAV. The NAV has grown considerably since itemizing, and I consider it’ll continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Mania is a bonus. The portfolio is the funding.
Disclaimer and Reader Questions
Earlier than making any funding, please do your personal due diligence and solely make investments what you’ll be able to afford to lose. Nothing right here is particular funding recommendation for you. That is merely how I am serious about my very own shares, and our circumstances, monetary targets, and time frames are completely different. My calculations is not going to be precise and can change as time goes up.
Do you personal VCX, and if that’s the case, did you purchase pre-listing at NAV or post-listing at a premium? What does your personal NAV math say, and the place do you assume the premium settles after the September lockup expiration?
Make investments At NAV, Not At A Premium
I simply spent a whole part constructing likelihood bushes to mannequin retail mania. You realize what requires zero likelihood bushes? Shopping for at NAV.
If this publish taught you something, it is that entry worth determines all the pieces. Traders who purchased VCX at its ~$19 NAV pre-listing or decrease are sitting on a possible double primarily based on fundamentals alone. Traders who paid a 10X premium or larger are hurting regardless of proudly owning the very same portfolio. Similar Anthropic, similar OpenAI, wildly completely different outcomes. The one variable was the value they paid to get in.
Fundrise has reportedly filed to launch VCX 2, although the timing and ultimate construction stay unsure. If a sequel launches, the window that issues is the pre-listing one, the place you purchase at NAV like the primary VCX’s largest winners did. Current Fundrise buyers might be notified first, and you’ll open an account right here to get on the listing. Free to enroll, and it beats setting a worth alert and praying.
Within the meantime, each fund on Fundrise’s platform, from personal actual property to personal credit score, transacts at NAV. No premium to overpay, no lockup-expiration provide waves, no mania variable to handicap. The complete second half of this publish, all of the premium modeling and likelihood bushes, merely does not apply. You get the basics with out the frenzy. Similar three-step logic, utilized to buildings and credit score as an alternative of AI unicorns.
Disclosure: Fundrise is a long-time sponsor of Monetary Samurai, and I’m an investor in Fundrise funds, together with the Innovation Fund (VCX). All NAV figures on this publish are my very own estimates primarily based on publicly reported funding rounds, not Fundrise’s official marks. This isn’t funding recommendation.
