Tajikistan has began importing oil and petroleum merchandise from Iran. Deliveries started in late August, the Ministry of Power and Water Assets advised Asia-Plus on September 24, with out disclosing the volumes, costs, suppliers, or transit route.
The shipments adopted August 15 talks in Tehran, the place Power Minister Daler Juma and Transport Minister Azim Ibrohim met Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and agreed to arrange a working group to organize a long-term provide settlement. Dushanbe requested for as much as 2.55 million tons a yr (2 million tons of crude, 300,000 tons of diesel, 150,000 tons of gasoline, and 100,000 tons of jet gasoline) together with discounted costs, devoted tank-car trains, and a “inexperienced hall” throughout Iran’s rail community.
The scramble is a product of Russia’s gasoline disaster. Russia provided 91.1 % of the 599,500 tons of petroleum merchandise Tajikistan imported within the first half of 2026, freed from export obligation. Tajikistan will not be a member of the Eurasian Financial Union (EAEU), and Carnegie Politika’s Galiya Ibragimova described a budget Russian gasoline as “fee” for Dushanbe’s “political loyalty” to Moscow. However loyalty purchased much less gasoline as soon as Ukrainian drones started disabling Russian refineries, together with the Omsk plant, which was knocked offline in early July.
Moscow has prolonged its diesel export ban month by month, most lately by way of October 31. Deliveries beneath intergovernmental agreements are exempt, however the carve-out has not saved Tajikistan provided: diesel shortages started in June. By July, some stations have been capping gross sales at 20 liters per automobile and diesel had climbed to $1.40-$1.66 per liter.
In Tajikistan, home refining covers about 0.5 % of gasoline consumption. Alternate options are scarce and costly. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran started on February 28, and Iran’s subsequent restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz saved oil costs above $100 a barrel in September. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are competing with Tajikistan for a similar restricted provides from Belarus, China, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
Iran is an unlikely lifeline. Relations collapsed after Tehran hosted exiled Islamic Renaissance Get together chief Muhiddin Kabiri in December 2015, months after Dushanbe banned his occasion as an extremist group. In 2017, Dushanbe accused Iran of involvement in political killings throughout the Nineties civil battle. The thaw got here with the 2022 opening of an Iranian drone manufacturing unit in Dushanbe and accelerated with President Masoud Pezeshkian’s January 2025 state go to, when the 2 sides signed 23 agreements. Bilateral commerce reached $438 million in 2025, up 28 % from the yr prior.
Nevertheless, Tajikistan and Iran don’t share a border. Transferring 2.55 million tons of petroleum merchandise by rail by way of third nations would take about 51,000 tank automobiles a yr, in keeping with Tajikistan’s Transport Ministry – roughly 140 a day. Iran could have little to supply past crude oil and jet gasoline: Hamid Hosseini of Iran’s Union of Oil, Gasoline and Petrochemical Merchandise Exporters mentioned gasoline and diesel exports weren’t beneath dialogue due to shortages in Iran itself, and put probably shipments at round 5,000 tons a month. The requested crude additionally exceeds Tajikistan’s refining capability. The TK-Oil plant in Danghara has a design capability of 1.2 million tons a yr however has future under it for lack of feedstock; one other Asia-Plus report put the nation’s two refineries at about 500,000 tons mixed.
Then there’s Washington. On August 24, the U.S. Treasury launched Operation Financial Outcast, widening the vary of Iran-related conduct uncovered to secondary sanctions and promising each nation a “outlined timeline” to close down Iran-related exercise. A Treasury official advised RFE/RL that anybody in Iran’s petroleum sector “incurs that danger themselves.” Edward Lemon of the Oxus Society famous that the modest scale of Tajik-Iranian commerce could hold Dushanbe under Washington’s threshold of consideration. The sensible publicity probably lies with whichever Tajik banks settle funds for Iranian cargoes, significantly in the event that they clear {dollars} or cope with designated Iranian entities.
Russia nonetheless provides 9 of each ten tons of Tajikistan’s gasoline, and on out there proof the Iranian route is unlikely to vary that this winter. However it provides Dushanbe a second provider at a second when Moscow can not assure a lot, albeit at the price of sanctions publicity that grows with each ton delivered.
