Kazakhstan has grow to be important within the evolving essential minerals rivalry between the US and China, itself a key side of the tumultuous commerce struggle between them. With latest initiatives on the a part of Trump administration, Kazakhstan’s prominence and potential as an important U.S. companion had grown significantly.
Commerce Rivalry between the U.S. and China
The China-U.S. commerce struggle started throughout Trump’s first presidential time period in 2018, when Washington imposed 25 % tariffs on $50 billion value of Chinese language imports. China retaliated with equivalent tariffs on a comparable $50 billion value of American items, significantly agricultural, vitality, and automotive merchandise. By 2019, the U.S. raised the sum of the tariffed items as much as $360 billion, and China responded with the imposition of tariffs on $110 billion items. Though in 2020, the states had been in a position to attain a truce – the Section One settlement – their competitors didn’t stop. Whereas the US scaled up its tariffs on the Chinese language know-how sector, China elaborated its authorized instruments to limit the export of delicate applied sciences.
The commerce tensions continued when U.S. President Joe Biden got here to workplace. He elevated tariffs on electrical autos, photo voltaic cells, and batteries, in addition to put restrictions on the export of semiconductors. This time, China responded strategically by concentrating on essentially the most weak a part of the U.S. import system – the provision of essential minerals. China imposed constraints on the export of essential minerals and uncommon earth parts (REEs). Specifically, the Chinese language authorities restricted the export of gallium, germanium and graphite, that are important essential minerals for protection and electrical automobile batteries.
The height in reciprocal tariffs and export controls got here within the first 12 months of the second Trump administration. Tariffs skyrocketed following “Liberation Day” however had been suspended when China once more put export controls on key essential minerals, comparable to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The nations agreed on a 90-day truce in Could 2025, and Trump needed to decrease the tariff charges to 30 % in return for entry to Chinese language essential minerals. In September, the U.S. Division of Commerce tightened export controls on Chinese language corporations that accessed restricted American applied sciences by way of associates and third events. In response, China declared intensive uncommon earth export controls, overtly demonstrating its leverage to retaliate. This motion once more led Trump to concede to a different truce for a one-year interval throughout his assembly with President Xi Jinping in the APEC summit in South Korea on October 30.
In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Courtroom struck down Trump’s tariffs. Nonetheless, the administration is looking for alternative routes to impose the penalties it needs on overseas nations, together with China.
Vital minerals and REEs have been central to the commerce struggle due to China’s dominance within the international provide chain. China controls round 60 % of worldwide manufacturing and 85 % of the processing capability of those strategic minerals. China can be the most important exporter of essential minerals to the U.S., supplying over half of U.S. demand for twenty-four essential minerals and 90 % of REEs demand in 2024. Given the significance of mineral uncooked supplies for the event of semiconductor manufacturing, inexperienced applied sciences and protection infrastructure, China’s primacy places the U.S. in a weak place.
Kazakhstan as a Strategic Companion within the U.S. Vital Minerals Provide Chain
Acknowledging the boundaries in essential minerals provide chain and their adversarial influence on commerce competitors with China, the US has prioritized the event of essential minerals in collaboration with different resource-rich nations. One among them is Kazakhstan, the most important financial system in Central Asia. Kazakhstan possesses 21 out of fifty minerals which might be categorised as essential within the U.S. The nation holds massive reserves of uranium, copper, chromite, gold, titanium, tungsten, and uncommon earth parts. It’s estimated that Kazakhstan could comprise third largest international reserves of uncommon earths. In whole, the nation’s mining sector accounts for 12 % of GDP.
The federal government of Kazakhstan has additionally demonstrated a powerful curiosity in creating its minerals trade. For instance, in 2025, it allotted $127 million for geological exploration, greater than another Central Asian state. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emphasised the function of uncommon earths within the long-term growth of the nation and, in an article for the U.S. outlet The Nationwide Curiosity earlier this 12 months, he outlined the significance of cooperation with the U.S. in advancing the essential minerals trade.
Though the partnership between the US and Kazakhstan in essential minerals is on the nascent stage, a stable groundwork has been laid during the last two years. In 2024, the U.S. launched the C5+1 Vital Minerals Dialogue to foster cooperation with the Central Asian states within the minerals trade, starting from exploration to processing phases. In the identical 12 months, the U.S. Division of State and Division of Vitality held the U.S.-Kazakhstan Strategic Vitality Dialogue in Kazakhstan, aimed toward creating vitality safety and significant mineral provide chains between the U.S. and Kazakhstan. The edges additionally signed a memorandum of understanding, reinforcing the end result of the dialogue with a authorized framework.
Kazakhstan joined the Minerals Safety Partnership (MSP) Discussion board, a high-level worldwide platform involving main economies, such because the U.S., EU, Australia, Japan, and others. Participation within the MSP Discussion board not solely highlights Kazakhstan’s function within the international minerals trade but in addition gives substantial alternatives to safe Western funding and infrastructure help.
The partnership between the U.S. and Kazakhstan on essential minerals was superior in the course of the C5+1 Summit in Washington on November 6, 2025. U.S. investing agency Cove Capital agreed to allocate $1.1 billion to the event of Kazakhstan’s largest tungsten deposits in Higher Kairakty and North Katpar. It’s noteworthy that the U.S. authorities expressed help for the mission by backing it with $900 million in financing from the Export-Import Financial institution, which demonstrates a high-level dedication to Kazakhstan.
Areas for Enchancment
Regardless of the progress that has been made in essential minerals cooperation between the US and Kazakhstan, there’s nonetheless room for enchancment. Specifically, most efforts stay centered on dialogue fairly than concrete joint actions. The U.S. can deepen the partnership by prioritizing the event of strategic initiatives with Kazakhstan. Final 12 months, the U.S. signed bilateral agreements with Australia and Japan, which lay down complete and detailed provisions to advertise the essential minerals provide chain. Washington and Astana can modify their very own bilateral agreements to incorporate extra advance frameworks. Contemplating Kazakhstan’s potential in turning into a powerful essential minerals companion, establishing a joint settlement that outlines financing commitments, timeline, know-how switch, and different enforcement mechanisms is a crucial step.
One other milestone for the U.S. in deepening engagement within the minerals sector of Kazakhstan is launching initiatives that reach past mere useful resource extraction. Larger funding is required within the geological exploration and processing phases of the provision chain. Kazakhstan’s reserves of essential minerals and REEs have been left underexplored after the Soviet interval. The processing stage has additionally been underdeveloped. For many years, Kazakhstan’s uncooked supplies trade has been predominantly confined to mining, which has considerably restricted the nation’s skill to achieve increased value-added advantages throughout the provision chain. Due to this fact, there’s a want for initiatives aimed toward modernizing exploration and creating downstream processing capacities.
By initiating built-in essential minerals initiatives, the U.S. could make its partnership with Kazakhstan extra engaging in comparison with different key companions, comparable to China and Russia. At present, the U.S. accounts for under 5 % of Kazakhstan’s essential minerals exports, whereas 27 % and 16 % of exports go to China and Russia, respectively. Increasing the U.S. involvement in its minerals sector would additionally serve Kazakhstan’s strategic pursuits. With creating alternatives for the U.S. engagement, the Kazakh authorities can diversify its essential minerals partnerships and cut back its dependence on Chinese language and Russian markets.
The rising U.S. curiosity in Kazakhstan’s essential minerals is a promising step to foster a non-Chinese language provide chain that will reinforce the U.S. leverage in commerce negotiations with China. The sturdiness and additional growth of the partnership will rely upon whether or not the U.S. and Kazakhstan advance their bilateral agreements and launch full-cycle essential minerals initiatives.
