The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hit no less than yet another tanker within the Strait on Friday, making final week’s narrative wars a distant reminiscence.
Ansar Allah, for his or her half, hit extra Saudi oil amenities, however Thursday’s airport assaults resulted in lots of airways cancelling all flights to Saudi Arabia.
In Yemen, Saudi-backed forces declare to have taken Bab al-Mandeb and even Mocha, and Ansar Allah has issued denials of these claims, some fairly convincing. Saudi bombing marketing campaign continues in Yemen, to differing outcomes primarily based on who’s describing them.
Putin additionally acquired concerned, assembly with the Iranian President and chopping a diesel cope with Trump.
Iran Tightens the Vise
The IRGC claimed successful on an enormous LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gasoline) provider that had been utilizing the “unauthorized route” south of the Strait of Hormuz. They claimed it had a big fireplace within the engine room, per Tasnim. Al Jazeera confirmed the report, saying it was a “large fireplace.”
The IRGC holds the US navy accountable and says Washington is “deceiving transport and insurance coverage firms and paying giant bribes.” It says firms that cooperate with the US might be sanctioned.
In addition they say enforcement will “now not be confined to the Strait of Hormuz. Any vessel utilizing an unauthorized passage (will) be pursued all through the area, and punishment would make sure.”
The FT acquired the memo, reporting Iran assaults tankers past Strait of Hormuz and publishing the map beneath:
The article mentions the assault close to Fujairah, though the map doesn’t appear to indicate it:
One other vessel, Dhalkut, reported capturing close by on Thursday whereas it was off the coast of Fujairah, the maritime safety firm Vanguard stated. Fujairah has turn out to be a well-liked mooring for extra risk-averse tankers ready to choose up cargoes which have been shuttled out of the Gulf.
John Walker, head of advisory at EOS Danger Group, a safety specialist, stated that Iran was in all probability pushing assaults additional into the Gulf to “remind Gulf states that the financial and safety price of supporting the US shouldn’t be confined to Hormuz” in addition to to diluting US air cowl. “Whereas US jets are busy in Hormuz, it’s simpler to conduct profitable assaults elsewhere,” he stated.
Commodities platform Kpler stated on Friday that flows had recovered to prewar ranges in September however that “intensified assaults on tankers” had pushed exports “sharply decrease” this week. The seven-day common as much as October 7 was 9.9mn barrels per day, 42 per cent decrease than the prewar baseline and down from round 15.5mn barrels per day in September, Kpler stated.
Reuters cites Kpler, saying transits are on the lowest fee in over two months. 7 commodity vessels crossed on Tuesday, October sixth, the bottom since July twenty third, and 10 on Wednesday, October seventh, in opposition to greater than 20 a day on Oct 4th & fifth.
Crude by the strait was no less than 10.1 million b/d, down 27% from the earlier week’s wartime excessive and 74% of the pre-war stage.
The IRGC launched some movies that point out some new drone tech is getting used:
⚡️BREAKING: The IRGC has Launched new Footage of Strikes in opposition to Oil Tankers within the Strait of Hormuz
The Shahed-238 (the subsequent technology of the Shahed-136) has been deployed in fight for the First Time https://t.co/n1eIvcDo1K
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) October 9, 2026
Each Bloomberg and Tasnim report that Iran’s missile-building capability stays formidable. However the variations are fascinating. I like to recommend studying the total Bloomberg piece (archived), as they quote fairly just a few analysts expressing totally different views. I excerpted the extra cogent ones beneath, however the full piece quotes the White Home and a number of apparent canards.
Bloomberg:
Iran has managed to protect its missile and drone factories regardless of months of US and Israeli bombing, officers accustomed to the matter stated, permitting it to replenish its arsenals whereas President Donald Trump holds off on strikes forward of the midterm elections.
Tehran nonetheless has the capability to fabricate weapons to rebuild its arsenal, based on the Western officers, who requested to not be recognized discussing non-public assessments. One official stated Iran stays well-stocked with ballistic missiles and a few anti-ship weapons, and may rapidly add extra.
…
“There’s in all probability much less high-end stuff accessible, however they’ve been stockpiling cruise missiles for themselves and the Houthis for years, and hiding them,” stated William Alberque, a Europe-based senior fellow on the Pacific Discussion board. “I’d guess with a good bit of confidence that we haven’t seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to anti-ship assaults.”
…
“The precise anti-ship missile stockpiles seemingly stay giant, each as a result of they’re comparatively straightforward to make, and Iran has in-housed a lot of the manufacturing of older Chinese language ASCMs, and Iran’s southern mountains present pure shelters in opposition to air assault,” stated Sidharth Kaushal, a senior analysis fellow on the Royal United Companies Institute.
Tasnim:
Iran’s home arms manufacturing elevated 2.5-fold within the seven months following the US-Israeli warfare of aggression in contrast with the identical interval earlier than the battle, regardless of harm to some amenities, the Protection Ministry’s spokesperson stated.
In feedback at a tv program, Brigadier Common Reza Talaei-Nik stated Iran maintains uninterrupted home manufacturing and provide for its Armed Forces all through the warfare, attributing the rise to advance preparations for safe different manufacturing websites and the expanded function of personal knowledge-based firms.
Iran relied on two key benefits: innovation and uneven protection, which he stated contributed to the nation’s victory and the enemy’s defeat, and financial protection, which enabled Iran to maintain its prices far beneath these incurred by its adversaries.
Regardless of harm to some Iranian amenities because of enemy assaults, arms manufacturing rose 2.5 instances over the seven-month interval, Talaei-Nik stated. He attributed the achievement to 2 efficient measures.
First, he defined, safe different areas had been designated upfront, permitting protection industries and manufacturing strains to proceed working in safer areas.
The second issue was the mobilization of Iran’s non-public sector, notably its community of greater than 9,000 knowledge-based firms, the spokesman added.
Now on to Ansar Allah’s assaults on Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Oil Infrastructure Hammered
Tasnim reported a “large fireplace” erupted at Abqaiq, Aramco’s essential crude processing plant, which dealt with as much as 7 million barrels (bbl) a day pre-war. Satellite tv for pc pictures confirmed smoke rising from the ability in addition to the Tanjib fuel plant.
BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis seem to have struck Saudi Arabia’s large Abqaiq oil facility, the world’s largest crude oil processing and stabilization facility, with enormous flames and smoke reportedly seen rising from the location.
The power is among the most vital elements of Saudi Arabia’s oil system, with the 2019 assault on Abqaiq knocking out round 5 million barrels per day of crude manufacturing — almost half of Saudi output and round 5% of world oil provide.
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) October 8, 2026
Reuters reviews on increasing Saudi airspace warnings from Europe’s EASA and OPSGROUP, a corporation of aviation professionals. Whereas FlightAware counted 130 Riyadh flights cancelled Friday. King Khalid airport dealt with about 813 flights per day in 2025. CBS cites Reuters/Cirium saying that 49.7% of Riyadh departures had been cancelled Thursday.
CBS lists Lufthansa, Air India, PIA, flydubai, Etihad, Emirates and Air Arabia as having suspended flights to Riyadh.
UK, France Germany, Australia and Canada are all advising in opposition to Saudi journey as are India and the Philippines.
Ansar Allah issued a press release permitting “Humanitarian flights to and from Riyadh Airport might be permitted for all flights that get hold of authorization from the Operations Coordination Middle for Humanitarian Affairs within the capital Sana’a.”
In the meantime the fog of warfare was thick over Yemen.
Each Sides Declare Advances in Yemen
The Saudi ambassador and authorities sources say Bab al-Mandab and Mayyun (Perim) Island had been cleared on 9 Oct.
Ansar Allah’s Brigadier Common Yahya Saree says two Saudi-backed advances from Lahj towards Bab al-Mandab had been repelled the identical day. AFP says neither facet’s navy sources reported main modifications on the bottom.
Ansar Allah additionally claimed that Col. Muath Ali Saleh “al-Ma’ada,” commander of the sixteenth Giants Brigade and of the al-Dhale emergency forces, was killed by a missile strike close to Bab al-Mandab alongside along with his deputy, Lt. Col. Abdulrahman Khaled Hamoud.
On the Taiz entrance, Ansar Allah claimed extra advances into town itself, saying Saudi-backed forces have been expelled from “all areas of Jabal Habashi District.”
Saudi-aligned media disputes this with YNP saying “the forces loyal to the Islah social gathering are entrenched” in Taiz however crediting Ansar Allah with taking the al-Masrakh district of town. AFP merely describes it as “the government-controlled metropolis” — kind of complicated since each side declare to be the Yemeni authorities, so it helps to know which retailers are aligned with which facet. AFP is unquestionably pro-Saudi.
Everybody agrees that the Saudis have been bombing Yemen closely. They declare to have destroyed a number of Ansar Allah rocket launchers in Friday’s assaults.
The Ansar Allah press says the Saudi assaults killed six civilians, together with a toddler and destroyed two factories.
Let’s wrap with a twofer from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin Meets Pezeshkian, Guarantees Diesel for Trump
Pezeshkian met Putin Thursday night (8 Oct) in Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan, on the sidelines of the CIS summit and the Caspian environmental summit, per Press TV.
“Proposals had been exchanged, each from our facet and from the People, and we’ve made our personal revisions to them. As soon as finalized, we intend to sit down down with the related intermediaries to consolidate and conclude the matter,” stated Pezeshkian. And “each time we discuss to the US, they launch new assaults. Nonetheless, we is not going to stroll away from the negotiating desk.”
Putin additionally discovered time to chop a cope with Trump to launch extra diesel.
“I’ve simply concluded a extremely profitable dialogue with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, whereby it was agreed that Russia will instantly provide over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Gasoline to the American and International Market, one other 500,000 Tons throughout the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons instantly thereafter.”
That’s all for right this moment. Keep secure, y’all.
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