The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) launched the newest – Australian Nationwide Accounts: Nationwide Earnings, Expenditure and Product, June 2026 – at present (September 2, 2026). This knowledge is now beginning to replicate the total impacts of the Center East disruptions and the rate of interest impacts arising from the latest hikes in charges from the RBA. The financial system is slowing and actually solely being held up by the family consumption and exports of fossil fuels. Apparently, the upkeep of family expenditure is being pushed by a surge in demand for electrical automobiles within the face of the rising petrol prices.The fast-tracking of this transition is welcome. The growth in personal enterprise funding arising from the info centre expenditure seems to have, for now, peaked within the March-quarter 2026. I count on the financial system to stay subdued for the subsequent few quarters.
The principle options of the Nationwide Accounts launch for the June-quarter 2026 have been (seasonally adjusted):
- Actual GDP elevated by 0.4 per cent for the quarter (0.3 per cent final quarter). The annual progress price was 2.1 per cent (2.5 final quarter).
- GDP per capita was unchanged (-0.1 per cent final quarter) and rose 0.7 per cent for the 12 months.
- Australia’s Phrases of Commerce fell 1.6 per cent for the quarter and 0.6 per cent over the 12 month interval.
- Actual web nationwide disposable earnings, which is a broader measure of change in nationwide financial well-being,was unchanged (0.4 final quarter) and 1.5 per cent over the 12 months (2.0 final quarter).
- GDP chain worth index (a measure of worth inflation) fell 0.6 per cent (+0.9 per cent final quarter) and rose 2.8 per cent over the 12 month interval.
- The Family saving ratio (from disposable earnings) rose to six.5 per cent from 6.4 per cent.
- GDP per hour labored was flat (-0.6 per cent final quarter) and fell -0.2 per cent for the 12 months.
Total progress image – subdued financial system continues
The ABS media launch – Australian financial system grew 0.4% within the June quarter – mentioned that:
Australian gross home product (GDP) rose 0.4 per cent within the June quarter 2026 and a pair of.1 per cent in comparison with June quarter 2025 (seasonally adjusted, chain quantity measure) ….
Financial progress remained subdued within the June quarter as households continued to behave cautiously. Whereas elevated spending and enterprise funding occurred in pockets of the financial system, imports supported a lot of the expansion, moderating its contribution to total GDP progress …
Family consumption rose 0.4 per cent within the June quarter with subdued spending throughout most classes. The Center East battle influenced spending behaviour with falls in gas consumption in response to elevated costs, and lowered home and worldwide journey.
Buy of autos rose by 10.3 per cent as households continued to transition to electrical autos …
Personal enterprise funding declined 0.5 per cent. Funding in equipment and gear for knowledge centre match outs fell following a considerable rise within the March quarter. Funding in knowledge centres stays at elevated ranges. Elevated purchases of planes and industrial transport gear partly offset the quarterly fall …
Imports of products rose 2.4 per cent pushed by automobiles and planes. In distinction, imports of companies fell 4.9 per cent because the Center East battle disrupted Australians’ worldwide journey plans …
Exports rose 0.8 per cent pushed by coal reflecting larger manufacturing, following climate disruptions within the March quarter. The rise in exports outpaced the rise in imports (up 0.5 p.c). Web commerce contributed 0.1 share factors to GDP progress …
The family saving to earnings ratio remained steady, up from 6.4 to six.5 per cent.
The quick story:
1. Home demand is weakening as consumption remained subdued and the AI knowledge centre funding peaks.
2. Contraction in help from the federal authorities.
3. Funding (personal and public) constructing new capability now falling from the height and largely driving import demand.
Quarterly GDP Development
The following graph exhibits the quarterly progress because the June-quarter 2022.
Within the June-quarter 2026, GDP progress weakened markedly.
To place this into historic context, the subsequent graph exhibits the last decade common annual actual GDP progress price because the Sixties (the horizontal pink line is the typical for the whole interval (3.27 per cent) from the September-quarter 1960 to the June-quarter 2026.
Though COVID severely interrupted the financial system, as soon as we take out the quarters between June 2020 and June 2022 (inclusive), then the typical since 2020 has been 1.9 per cent each year – very mediocre – and declining.
It’s also apparent how far beneath historic tendencies the expansion efficiency of the final 2 a long time have been because the fiscal surplus obsession has intensified on either side of politics.
Even with a large family credit score binge and a once-in-a-hundred-years mining growth that was pushed by stratospheric actions in our phrases of commerce, our actual GDP progress has declined considerably beneath the long-term efficiency.
The Sixties was the final decade the place authorities maintained true full employment.
GDP per capita was flat within the June-quarter
Within the June-quarter 2026, GDP per capita was unchanged after falling by 0.1 per cent within the earlier quarter.
Whereas commentators deal with this statistics, the which means of the typical is questionable, given the extremely skewed earnings distribution in direction of the highest finish.
What we will say is that if the typical is declining, then these on the backside are doing it very robust certainly.
The next graph of actual GDP per capita (which omits the pandemic restriction quarters between December-quarter 2020 and December-quarter 2021) tells the story.
Be aware the final remark is zero so there isn’t any visibility within the column graph.
Evaluation of Expenditure Elements
The next graph exhibits the quarterly share progress for the most important expenditure elements in actual phrases for the December-quarter 2025 (gray bars) and the June-quarter 2026 (blue bars).
Contributions to progress
The next bar graph exhibits the contributions to actual GDP progress (in share factors) for the principle expenditure classes. It compares the June-quarter 2026 contributions (blue bars) with the earlier quarter (grey bars).
- Family consumption expenditure added 0.2 factors (0.2 final quarter).
- Personal funding expenditure added 0.0 factors (0.8).
- Web exports added 0.1 level (final quarter -0.8) – the 0.2 level export contribution outweighed the -0.1 level import subtraction (keep in mind constructive import expenditure progress constitutes a lack of progress).
- Total authorities contribution was zero (-0.1 final quarter) – the recurrent contribution was 0.1 level (-0.1) whereas the capital contribution was minus 0.1 level (+0.1 level).
Materials residing requirements unchanged within the June-quarter 2026
The ABS inform us that:
A broader measure of change in nationwide financial well-being is Actual web nationwide disposable earnings. This measure adjusts the amount measure of GDP for the Phrases of commerce impact, Actual web incomes from abroad and Consumption of mounted capital.
Whereas actual GDP progress (that’s, complete output produced in quantity phrases) rose by 0.4 per cent within the present quarter, actual web nationwide disposable earnings progress was unchanged.
How will we clarify that?
Reply: The phrases of commerce fell by 1.6 per cent within the present quarter which offset the rise in compensation of workers (COE) of 1.5 per cent.
Productiveness progress static
The sectoral productiveness progress final result have been:
- Market sector: -0.2 per cent (annual), 0.2 per cent (quarter).
- Non-market sector: -0.3 per cent (annual), -0.1 per cent (quarter).
- Total: -0.2 per cent (annual), zero per cent (quarter).
The next graph presents quarterly progress charges in actual GDP and hours labored utilizing the Nationwide Accounts knowledge from the June-quarter 2022 to the June-quarter 2026.
To see the above graph from a distinct perspective, the subsequent graph exhibits the annual progress in GDP per hour labored (labour productiveness) from the start of 2008 to the June-quarter 2026.
The horizontal pink line is the typical annual progress because the September-quarter 2008 (0.76 per cent), which itself is an understated measure of the long-term development progress of round 1.5 per cent each year.
Family saving ratio improves by 0.1 level
The next graph exhibits the family saving ratio (% of disposable earnings) from the December-quarter 2000 to the present interval.
It exhibits the interval main as much as the GFC, the place the credit score binge was in full swing and the saving ratio was damaging to the rise in the course of the GFC after which the newest rise.
An growing saving ratio offers the family sector total with an elevated capability to danger handle within the face of uncertainty.
The following graph exhibits the saving ratio since 1960, which illustrates the way in which wherein the neoliberal interval has squeezed family saving.
Going again to the pre-GFC interval, the family saving ratio was damaging and consumption progress was maintained by growing debt – which is an unsustainable technique on condition that family debt is so excessive.
Regardless that the ratio has been rising barely in latest quarters, it’s nonetheless properly beneath previous ranges.
The next desk exhibits the influence of the neoliberal period on family saving. These patterns are replicated world wide and expose our economies to the specter of monetary crises rather more than in pre-neoliberal a long time.
| Decade | Common Family Saving Ratio (% of disposable earnings) |
| Sixties | 13.9 |
| Nineteen Seventies | 16.0 |
| Nineteen Eighties | 11.8 |
| Nineties | 4.8 |
| 2000s | 1.2 |
| 2010s | 6.2 |
| 2020s on | 8.6 |
| Since RBA hikes | 5.0 |
The distribution of nationwide earnings
The wage share in nationwide earnings rose to 54.3 per cent within the June-quarter 2026.
The revenue share additionally rose by 0.2 factors to 27.1 per cent.
The rationale that each shares can rise in the identical quarter is as a result of the residual share – largely authorities – has fallen.
The primary graph exhibits the wage share in nationwide earnings whereas the second exhibits the revenue share.
The declining share of wages traditionally is a product of neoliberalism and can in the end need to be reversed if Australia is to take pleasure in sustainable rises in requirements of residing with out file ranges of family debt being relied on for consumption progress.
Conclusion
Keep in mind that the Nationwide Accounts knowledge is three months previous – a rear-vision view – of what has handed and to make use of it to foretell future tendencies shouldn’t be easy.
Additional, this knowledge is now beginning to replicate the total impacts of the Center East disruptions and the rate of interest impacts arising from the latest hikes in charges from the RBA.
The financial system is slowing and actually solely being held up by the family consumption and exports of fossil fuels.
Apparently, the upkeep of family expenditure is being pushed by a surge in demand for electrical automobiles within the face of the rising petrol prices.
The growth in personal enterprise funding arising from the info centre expenditure seems to have, for now, peaked within the March-quarter 2026.
I count on the financial system to stay subdued for the subsequent few quarters.
Clarification on terminology
I advocate a degrowth technique for the worldwide financial system total on condition that our footprint is 1.7 occasions the capability of the biosphere to regenerate.
To attain that technique, on condition that many poorer nations should proceed to develop, would require quite substantial reduce backs in spending and consumption within the richer nations.
Once I analyse the Nationwide Accounts knowledge or any expenditure/output knowledge, I write as if progress is ‘good’.
However that terminology is used within the context that with out financial progress and with none substantial shifts in earnings distribution and authorities transition insurance policies, making an attempt to pursue a recessionary technique would harm the weakest members of our society disproportionately.
In some respects, I’m abstracting from the damaging actuality of our ecological footprint.
That’s sufficient for at present!
(c) Copyright 2026 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.
