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What is generally a interval of non secular statement, or at the least a little bit of a vacation within the Judeo-Christian world, has as a substitute produced a serious embarrassment and possible setback for the US in its prosecution of the Iran warfare, by way of the wrecking of an F-15 jet in Iran and loss or seize of 1 pilot, and at the least one rescue helicopter additionally having been downed. As a result of we’re in fog of data and narrative, please forgive me if the knowledge right here is contradicted by later stories.
To step again a bit: the warfare was in nice and more and more apparent hassle even earlier than Iran demonstrated that it air defenses, opposite to repeated Trump claims, had not been worn out.1 The US and Israel are working out of weapons. The Trump-backed Hegseth purge of senior members of the armed servicse is creating the texture of the Nixon Saturday Night time Bloodbath, and for a similar purpose: the are opposing orders to do issues like commit warfare crimes, that are towards US in addition to worldwide regulation. Chas Freeman has argued that Trump telling NATO members to go open the Strait of Hormuz themselves is tantamount to telling them to barter transit agreements.
But is is wonderful to see supposed specialists parrot pro-US speaking factors (see a contemporary interview on Aljazeera for instance), of US plane being misplaced to pleasant fireplace when there’s ample purpose to low cost these claims, and asserting that the US is making many sorties into Iran, when it seems that that’s at greatest occasional and the nice majority of strikes into Iran are completed at standoff ranges. So Crew Trump has nonetheless been performing properly within the warfare of narratives.
Robert Barnes, who has plenty of Trump Administration connections, contends that the bottom assault into Iran was set for this weekend, however Trump did a short lived TACO due so Susie Wiles below stress from JD Vance managing to get some actual data earlier than him. This comes after a piece the place Barnes discusses one more “no scheme is simply too unbelievable for Trump to not attempt it” attainable later scapegoating of Gabbard for the Iran fiasco:
The transcript is uneven as a result of that’s how Barnes talks:
And as she [Gabbard] reported to Congress after the warfare even began, they’d not discovered there was any proof of any nuclear risk from Iran. And so they had not discovered any proof that Iran was any type of imminent risk. And he or she stated the president will get to unilaterally resolve constitutionally whether or not such a imminent risk exists. However that was the one protection he might mount for the president as a result of there was no different and the so you’d assume that. However the what Trump is doing is he’s beginning uh what occurred this previous week is vice chairman Vance was in a position to persuade utilizing information and data that we and others offered to his workplace, persuade the chief of employees Susie Willes that she needed to cease gatekeeping Trump and blocking entry to impartial data and needed to particularly instruct the generals, the navy and the intelligence neighborhood to relay unfettered limitless, and the power neighborhood unfettered limitless details about what was dangerous occurring associated to the Iran warfare.
In order that’s why she lastly did. That’s why Trump’s speech on Thursday or on Wednesday slightly was a muted type of speech slightly than full celebration of victory slightly than announcement of floor troops going by which is I consider what he initially meant to do. He needed to pull that again and hedge it as a result of all of this was being lastly introduced to him. However his response was rage. That is his rage is an increasing number of uncontrolled than it’s ever been. There’s his components of his psychological colleges. You noticed him begin to slur phrases at the start of that written ready assertion.
Larry Johnson in Trump’s Untimely Declare About Air Supremacy and Obliterated Iranian Air Defenses tallies the US losses on Good Friday:
Throughout his Wednesday evening speech, Donald Trump made the next declare about Iran’s air defenses:
They haven’t any anti-aircraft gear, their radar’s 100% annihilated, we’re unstoppable as a navy pressure.
It seems that President Trump was a bit untimely. The US Air Pressure had a tough day on Friday:
➡️F-15E (forty eighth Fighter Wing) — Shot down in southwestern Iran. Pilot rescued; WSO nonetheless lacking.
➡️A-10C Thunderbolt II — Shot down and crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot reportedly recovered.
➡️2X HH-60G Pave Hawk — Hit throughout CSAR mission, one crash-landed throughout the border in Iraq. All crew reportedly rescued.
➡️KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 round 10:00 UTC close to Tel Aviv.
➡️F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” (F-16C Block 50/52, SEAD configuration) — Emergency squawk 7700 over Saudi Arabia close to the Iraqi border round 15:00 UTC; later disappeared from FlightRadar.
➡️KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 round 19:00 UTC close to Tel Aviv.
It seems that Iran has no centralized air protection C2 or any type of joint engagement zone (JEZ) anymore. Nonetheless, as evidenced by the incidents above, Iran seems to be counting on Vietnam-style guerrilla ways of shoot-and-scoot air protection with their passive and extremely tactical indigenous system… The IR-SA-7’s (pronounced “Ur-sah-seven”). Some are specifically developed missiles that may loiter at altitude, virtually like a glider, utterly passive, that lie in look ahead to one of many US older technology fighters, tankers or different help plane to wander too shut after which hone-in.
Remember that Johnson’s view that what Iran has or has left is primitive could also be Oorientalism Contemplate:
Iran’s Majid air-defense system, formally designated AD-08, is a domestically produced, road-mobile, short-range surface-to-air missile platform that first appeared in a navy parade in April 2021 and has since emerged as essentially the most consequential weapons improvement of… pic.twitter.com/JI81FXb45l
— FrameTheGlobeNews (@FrameGlobeNews) April 4, 2026
Furthermore, as Ted Postol has been saying for a really very long time, air protection techniques are a rip-off. Witness how shocked navy specialists had been on the poor efficiency of Israel’s vaunted techniques in a postage-stamp sized and due to this fact presumably defendable nation. Even best-of-breed Russia, with its large layered air protection system, nonetheless suffers profitable strikes by Ukraine occasionally. In a very large nation, it’s not possible to guard every part properly, and Iran’s fundamental line of protection has been to go deep underground. In equity, Iran could not have made sufficient allowance for US and Israel enthusiasm for committing warfare crimes by focusing on civilian infrastructure and non-combatants.
As well as, Iran has proven it’s properly conscious of the US/Western reliance and arguably over-reliance on radar-based techniques. That may be a large purpose Iran rapidly went after THAAD radars and is now looking their backup, AWACS jets. The F-35 is stealthy solely to radar detection; it may be “seen” thermally and likewise reportedly emits plenty of digital alerts. And my understanding is that helicopters and jets flying low can considerably evade radar.
Iran could have additionally (per the THAAD case) have acknowledged that radars are susceptible and will have individually made a degree of using extra technique of risk detection. Recall the hypothesis that Iran used thermal imaging in order to trace and fireplace at an F-35; ed Postol speculated that Iran may additionally be utilizing audio surveillance, which he depicts as efficient over comparatively brief ranges.
Extra from Simplicius in Catastrophe: Operation “Stone Age” Begins to Backfire with a tweet with an excellent longer record of plane hits:
- One OSINT account’s breakdown:
There have been a number of incidents involving U.S. plane within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) space of operation (AO) inside the final 24 hours:
1. A U.S. Air Pressure F-15E “Strike Eagle” was hit by Iranian fireplace and crashed in Iran. Each crew members survived, with 1 being rescued, and a big fight search and rescue operation is ongoing for the 2nd.
2. A U.S. Air Pressure HH-60W “Jolly Inexperienced II” conducting operations to rescue the downed F-15 crew took small-arms fireplace with at the least 1 crew member injured, nevertheless it continued again to base.
3. The pilot of a U.S. Air Pressure A-10C “Thunderbolt II” ejected over the Persian Gulf, with Iran claiming duty for capturing it down. The pilot was recovered safely.
4. A U.S. Air Pressure F-16C “Combating Falcon” briefly confirmed on flight monitoring websites squawking 7700 (emergency) over Iraq.
5. A U.S. Air Pressure KC-135 “Stratotanker” was squawking 7700 (emergency) over Israel.Photographs of destroyed Chinook.
The F-16 was stated to have squawked an emergency code however possible returned to base.
And the kinetic warfare entries from NO1:
- F-15E shot down over Iran, A-10 crashed close to Hormuz on the identical day. One F-15E crew member rescued by US particular forces deep inside Iran; second crew member ultimately extracted after a second CSAR crew deployed. A Black Hawk helicopter was struck by Iranian fireplace in the course of the rescue. An A-10 Warthog additionally went down close to the Strait of Hormuz, pilot rescued. Iran used superior passive infrared detection to blindside the F-15E per ABC Information. A number of sources: Axios, NYT by way of ZH, Lord Bebo, Babak Taghvaee. Confidence: HIGH…
- Iran’s sustained ballistic missile barrages hitting Israel arduous throughout Passover.A number of waves focusing on Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba, with particular person salvos of 100-380+ alerts. Iranian missiles struck central Israel with cluster warheads. Iranian forces additionally hit Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery and a desalination plant. Kuwait intercepted 7 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, and 26 drones in 24 hours. Confidence: HIGH
- Trump proposes file $1.5 trillion in warfare spending. Protection funds exceeds $1T for first time in US historical past per Breaking Protection by way of Lord Bebo. No Ukraine funding within the FY2027 funds – the phrase “Ukraine” doesn’t seem as soon as. Confidence: HIGH
Sadly even within the face of this fiasco, Trump is (after all) doubling down:
I simply heard from a supply very near high of the White Home that, following as we speak’s shootdown of an F-15, an A-10, and the profitable hits on a number of helicopters and different plane, the WH is selecting additional escalation, together with US troops on the bottom. This could be…
— James R. Webb (@JamesWebb_16) April 4, 2026
Admittedly, the Janta Ka clip beneath suggests that folks in Iran are being solicited to impede the search and rescue effort and assist seize the pilot alive. They’re additionally in search of to take down the rescue helicopters based mostly on quaint visible acquisition. Nima of Dialogue Works hails from that a part of Iran and says that rifle possession and competence is widespread. Bear in mind this search and rescue mission might lead to extra losses of males and materiel.
A contemporary Aljazeera replace says the pilot continues to be lacking:
Larry Wilkerson stated lately that he had gotten a contemporary report however not confirmed that Russia had lately delivered a lot of S-500s with Russian operators. However these would possible be in means of being built-in.
Amazingly, Trump has had the cheek to ask for a 48 hour ceasefire. What about “no” don’t you perceive? Hindustan Instances stories that Iran’s response included extra arduous pounding of Israel:
Standard knowledge is that Israelis nonetheless help the the wars by a substantial majority. This report suggests that’s beginning to buckle:
Larry Wilkerson had an vital and as all the time very informative discuss with Chris Hedges.2 I had not realized that Wilkerson had flown many rounds as a helicopter operator within the Vietnam Warfare. Wilkerson give an excessive amount of element as to the comparatively few choices the US has for mounting operations in Iran. He concludes that Trump will attempt to do one thing that’s restricted when it comes to the size of the warfare and any strategic affect however nonetheless showy:
When it comes to when a floor operation may get going, apart from the most important monkey wrench of the plane losses on Friday, Larry Johnson and Stanislav Krapivnik defined it may well’t occur in the course of the upcoming week as a result of Trump and Hegseth having one more insane and insanely-costly assembly of the entire generals and flag officers:
The germane part from the mildly-cleaned up machine transcript:
Johnson: Um, this I simply I simply noticed flash throughout my display this information that Hegseth is looking all common officers to point out up uh for a command efficiency at Quantico.
Krapivnik: Properly, we’ve completed this earlier than.
Johnson: Properly, yeah, however this this one’s going to be closed door. He’s not going to do that open session. However it begs the query in the event you’re calling everyone from you recognize in the event you’re calling all the final officers in command to point out up properly meaning then they’re not going to be conducting any operations subsequent week floor or in any other case within the theater there in West Asia and Iran Persian Gulf as a result of the commanders gained’t be there…. I perceive the primary time he introduced all of them in, Trump simply needed an viewers, an enormous viewers, however no person does that. No one works like that in any type of skilled group. You fly, if something, you convey within the high commanders of a of a area, you give them the orders or your imaginative and prescient for the miss, after which they go pump out the orders for the subordinate models, … If if someone needed to take out 800 generals without delay, you complete command construction.
Krapivnik: You recognize, firms like once I labored for, Halliburton, had a coverage that greater than two vice presidents couldn’t be on the identical aircraft simply in case. And now you’re getting all the management of the US navy all below one roof in a single location once more.
Larry Wilkerson, early on in a brand new discuss with Larry Johnson and Nima, lists the grievances among the many high navy officers that Hegseth compelled out. They transcend the reckless conduct of the warfare. The chief of employees was significantly exercised about compelled resignations of black and ladies officers. One other large challenge is the interference with chaplains and an energetic effort to limit all spiritual help and counsel to Christianity and Judaism.3
I don’t wish to appear Pollyannish, however getting all the highest brass collectively is dangerous for one more purpose. I had warned a technique the Trump Administration might finish or be castrated was by way of a delicate navy coup, as in officers refusing to execute his routinely unlawful orders. Getting all of them collectively facilitates communication of discontent, and in particular person (if they’re good about it) reduces surveillance danger.
I’ve not been in a position to verify this tweet, but when correct, it says the fired officers usually are not going quietly:
🚨 🇺🇸 Breaking:
An hour after asserting his resignation, the US Military Chief of Employees says: “A madman will lead the nice US navy to smash.” pic.twitter.com/OpRARGLpcT
— MENA Pulse (@MENA_Puls) April 4, 2026
In holding:
CONFIRMED: Pentagon and the US central command is going through anxiousness and confusion as Generals have overtly defied unlawful orders. Excessive profile sackings on going. There is a silent voice beneath the floor…..
— Royal Ambassador (@JaokooMoses) April 3, 2026
And this flip additionally doesn’t bode properly for the Administration. From The Hill in GOP reward pours in for Military chief of employees ousted by Hegseth:
Republicans are rallying behind Gen. Randy George after Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly fired him from the Pentagon, praising the previous Military chief of employees as a gradual and achieved navy chief.
A Pentagon official advised The Hill on Thursday that Hegseth requested George to step down because the Military’s forty first chief of employees and retire instantly. He joins the greater than a dozen senior navy officers dismissed by Hegseth for the reason that begin of his time period.
George’s abrupt exit — coming amid the continued battle with Iran — was met with obvious shock from Rep. Wealthy McCormick (R-Ga.), who advised Newsmax’s Ed Henry that he can be “very curious to know why” the four-star common was fired….
Help for George rapidly poured in on-line, with Home Armed Companies Committee (HASC) Chair Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) lauding his efforts to recruit and modernize the department….
Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), one other HASC member, described George as a “nice common, principled chief, & a dedicated American.”…
The ouster additionally struck a chord with retired four-star Gen. Jack Keane, who stated Friday morning on Fox Information that he didn’t agree with the choice.
Whenever you’ve misplaced Jack Keane….
Larry Johnson and Stas additionally mentioned intimately how Iran can get oil exported. It has 5 methods to get it into tankers. Kharg is one of the best because of the potential to load a number of large tankers without delay however is hardly indispensable.
Some informational hygiene issues. First, as a number of readers identified on yesterday’s Iran warfare thread, Bugs pointed to this Al Mayadeen article, IRGC decries assault on US embassy in Riyadh, says executed by ‘Israel’. Second, Iran has additionally denied hitting the Kuwait desalination plant and likewise depicted that as a false flag. In a contemporary discuss with Nima, Chas Freeman deemed that to be credible, as a result of amongst different causes, Israel hates Kuwait essentially the most of all Gulf states.
And a few good historic background for these with the time and curiosity:
Completed for as we speak. See you tomorrow!
____
1 We had argued that given early threats to deploy US forces, that Iran could have determined to not present a few of its air protection capabilities in order to raised lure in US plane for a much bigger kill.
And as for Iran’s sophistication, one other reminder from Chuck L:
معلومة
لدى إيران سلاحين استراتيجيين لم تستخدمهما بعد
ذكرنا أمس طائرات (حديد 110) و (أرش 2) اللي بدأت تستعملهم إيران في ضرباتها للمواقع الحيوية منذ أيام
اليوم هكلمكم عن صاروخين جديدين محدش بيتكلم عنهم، لكن جنرالات إيران أشاروا لهم ولغيرهم ضمن المفاجآت العسكرية القادمة
أولا:… pic.twitter.com/cTwZh9Unlt
— سامح عسكر (@sameh_asker) April 3, 2026
Together with the machine-generated translation since I infer it’s a must to have a Twitter account to have that operate avaiable:
Data
Iran has two strategic weapons that it has not but used.
Yesterday we talked about the (Hadid 110) and (Arash 2) plane that Iran has begun utilizing in its strikes on important websites in latest days.
At present I’m going to speak to you about two new missiles that nobody is speaking about, however Iranian generals have hinted at them and others as a part of upcoming navy surprises.
First: Hoveyzeh missile
It’s a winged cruise missile that flies at low altitudes and has a semi-stealth functionality to evade radars, and to assault its targets with a small margin of error not exceeding just a few meters, and based on Iranian sources the margin of error is (one meter).
Its pace is 800 km/h, a pace just like that of Tomahawk missiles from the identical household.
The Hoveizeh missile has a variety of 1,300 km and a 400 kg high-explosive warhead, which means it may well destroy massive areas and important targets. It’s primarily designed to strike fastened land targets equivalent to navy bases, oil installations, and different amenities. Its dimension makes it able to inflicting vital harm, even when it isn’t 100% correct.
Iran carried out a profitable check of it in 2019 at a distance of 1200 km, which is enough distance to strike Israel from a close-by Iranian border level, and up to now it has not #ايران to make use of it, nor has it determined but to make use of its arsenal of surface-to-surface guided missiles.
Second: Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis missile
Additionally it is a winged cruise missile designed for naval targets and flies at a low altitude near the water to evade radars. It makes use of synthetic intelligence to jam and precisely establish its targets, and is taken into account the one declared Iranian weapon that makes use of synthetic intelligence.
The missile has a pace of roughly 700 km/h and may also be used towards land targets, however it’s designed primarily for fleets and plane carriers, along with land and coastal targets equivalent to ports.
The Abu Mahdi missile has a variety of 1000 km and its warhead weighs 400 kg, which means a lot of them are enough to destroy and sink massive naval vessels. Due to this fact, American plane carriers and their accompanying naval vessels keep additional away from the Iranian coast than that distance to keep away from falling into the Iranian “fireplace line.” This, in flip, exhausts the American plane on board the provider and forces them to make use of different plane to refuel, which doubles the chance.
This missile will be launched from land-based platforms, which means it’s a pressure that may be launched from Iranian land at any time towards enemy fleets. This makes the thought of opening #مضيق_هرمز by pressure a loopy and suicidal concept.
It isn’t identified precisely how a lot of Iran’s stockpile of these vital missiles it possesses.
However precise manufacturing of them started in 2019 and the latter entered service in 2023. Based on Iran’s excessive manufacturing charges for its weapons, it’s anticipated that Iran possesses an enormous strategic stockpile of them which will attain (a number of thousand), which signifies that we face a big Iranian firepower that has not but entered the sphere.
2 I’ve to quibble about a few points. One is the lengthy dialogue by Wilkerson on the high that this warfare is to stop China from constructing a land bridge to Europe. Ahem, Netanyahu has been making an attempt to get the US to go to warfare with Iran for 30+ years. Equally, US designs towards Iran properly predate China being a perceived risk (bear in mind ChiMerica? Even after China turned an financial powerhouse, we thought we had been besties till 2017):
U. S. Common Wesley Clark (2007): “We’re going to take out 7 nations in 5 years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and ending it off with Iran” pic.twitter.com/jVaPRU3CpW
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 6, 2026
Now it might be that the China angle obtained the China hawks on board. However it may well’t be thought-about an enormous drive.
Second is that Hedges and Wilkerson each deal with Khargh Island as the one method to for Iran to export oil. As Stas describes within the discuss with Larry Johnson above, Iran has 4 different choices.
3 When taking good care of my getting old mom, I wound up watching plenty of the TV present NCIS: Los Angeles, which had the fabulous actress Linda Hunt. Its solid contains the rapper LL Cool J enjoying Sam Hunt, a legendary Navy Seal/Seal coach…who was Muslim. So a Muslim as a formidable navy officer had been a popular culture merchandise.
