I ought to remind myself to not take heed to the media (even the general public broadcaster) when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the newest labour pressure knowledge – Labour Power, Australia – for November 2025 – because it did at the moment (December 11, 2025). The commentary instantly after that knowledge launch at the moment was the exemplification of mainstream massaging of the reality. The ABC had some financial institution economist on telling the nation that the info confirmed that Australia was working above capability (over full employment) and rates of interest must rise additional to self-discipline inflation. He didn’t point out that his company would profit from such charge rises through elevated earnings. He additionally failed to inform the listeners that whereas unemployment remained steady at 4.3 per cent (solely as a result of participation fell within the face of falling employment), underemployment rose additional to six.2 per cent (up 0.4 factors), and the broad labour underutilisation charge rose to 10.5 per cent – take into consideration that – 10.5 per cent of obtainable and keen labour in Australia and this so-called professional thinks that’s full employment requires unemployment to rise at the very least an additional 0.2 factors. Which means is misplaced and neoliberal ideology and corporate-speak replaces it. Disgusting. The interviewer was additionally horrible and ought to be sacked for his errors and failure to carry the ‘professional’ to account. Such is the nationwide broadcaster in Australia as of late. The fact is that it’s nonsensical to argue that Australia being near full employment. With out the autumn within the participation charge, the official unemployment charge would have been 4.63 per cent slightly than its present official worth of 4.3 per cent. The labour market is significantly weaker in November and there may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
The abstract seasonally-adjusted statistics for November 2025 are:
- Employment fell 21,300 (-0.1 per cent).
- Full-time employment fell by 56.5 thousand (-0.6 per cent).
- Half-time employment rose by 35.2 thousand (0.8 per cent).
- Unemployment fell 2,100 (-0.3 per cent) to 662,300.
- The unemployment charge was steady at 4.3 per cent (however would have been 4.6 per cent had the participation charge remained fixed).
- The participation charge fell 0.2 factors to 66.7 per cent.
- The Employment-population ratio fell 0.2 factors to 63.8 per cent.
- Month-to-month hours labored fell 1 million (-0.05 per cent).
- Underemployment rose 0.4 factors to six.2 per cent (rising by 62.7 thousand to 944.3 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation charge (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.4 factors to 10.5 per cent.
- General, there are 1,606.6 thousand individuals both unemployed or underemployed.
The ABS press launch – Unemployment charge stays at 4.3% – famous that:
The seasonally adjusted unemployment charge was regular at 4.3 per cent in November …
Each the variety of unemployed and employed individuals fell in November, by 2,000 and by 21,000 respectively … the participation charge fell by 0.2 proportion factors to 66.7 per cent …
The employment-to-population ratio fell by 0.2 proportion factors to 63.8 per cent this month …
The underemployment charge rose by 0.4 proportion factors to six.2 per cent …
The underutilisation charge, which mixes the unemployment and underemployment charges, rose by 0.4 proportion factors to 10.5 per cent. This was 0.5 proportion factors greater than November 2024 …
Abstract
1. In contrast to the representations of the mainstream media, which characteristic commentators from the industrial banks which have vested pursuits, the fact is that the labour went backwards in November.
2. The one motive that the unemployment charge remained regular within the face of detrimental employment progress is as a result of the participation charge fell, which implies the supply-side shrunk greater than the demand-side. That could be a signal of weak spot.
3. The drop in full-time employment and the partial offset in part-time work was the principle motive that underemployment jumped 0.4 factors – a really important rise.
Employment progress detrimental in November
The detrimental employment progress was accompanied with a declining participation (a typical remark) – each alerts of a weakening state of affairs.
- Employment fell 21,300 (-0.1 per cent).
- Full-time employment fell by 56.5 thousand (-0.6 per cent).
- Half-time employment rose by 35.2 thousand (0.8 per cent).
The next graph reveals the expansion in complete, full-time, and part-time employment for the final 24 months.
The next desk reveals the shifts during the last 6 months which helps to see the underlying development.
The Employment-to-Inhabitants ratio supplies a measure of the state of the labour market that’s unbiased of the availability shifts within the labour market (pushed by the shifts within the participation charge).
The underlying working age inhabitants grows steadily whereas the labour pressure shifts with each underlying inhabitants progress and the participation swings.
The next graph reveals the Employment-Inhabitants ratio fell 0.2 factors to 63.8 per cent, the lowest it has been since January 2024.
The following graphs present the common month-to-month change in complete employment (first graph) and full- and part-time employment (second graph).
For complete employment the month-to-month common adjustments have been:
- 2022 – 44.9 thousand
- 2023 – 30.9 thousand
- 2024 – 32.6 thousand
- 2025 to this point – 11.8 thousand (important fall in November)
Month-to-month hours labored fell 1 million (-0.05 per cent) in November 2025
The next graph reveals the expansion in month-to-month hours labored for the final 24 months, with the straight line being a easy linear regression to point development.
Unemployment fell 2.1 thousand to 662.3 thousand in November
The official unemployment charge was steady at 4.3 per cent.
Why did unemployment fall, provided that complete employment additionally fell?
Reply: Participation fell within the face of declining employment alternatives.
So the contraction within the demand-side (employment) was lower than the contraction within the supply-side (participation).
However dangerous nonetheless – see beneath for what the unemployment charge would have been given the employment losses if participation had been steady.
The next graph reveals the evolution of the official unemployment charge since 1980.
What was the impression of the declining participation charge on unemployment in November 2025
The query is what would the unemployment charge have been, given the employment decline in November, if the participation charge had not additionally fallen?
These ideas assist us reply this kind of query:
- The labour pressure is a subset of the working-age inhabitants (these above 15 years previous). The proportion of the working-age inhabitants that constitutes the labour pressure is known as the labour pressure participation charge. Thus adjustments within the labour pressure can impression on the official unemployment charge, and, consequently, actions within the latter have to be interpreted rigorously. A rising unemployment charge could not point out a recessing economic system.
- The labour pressure can broaden on account of basic inhabitants progress and/or will increase within the labour pressure participation charges (and vice versa).
The next Desk reveals the breakdown within the adjustments to the principle aggregates (Labour Power, Employment and Unemployment) and the impression of the autumn within the participation charge.
The change within the labour pressure in November 2025 was the result of two separate elements:
- The underlying inhabitants progress added 25.1 thousand individuals to the labour pressure. The inhabitants progress impression on the labour pressure mixture is comparatively regular from month to month; and
- The autumn within the participation charge meant that there have been 48.5 thousand LESS staff within the labour pressure (relative to what would have occurred had the participation charge remained unchanged).
- The online end result was that the labour pressure fell by 23.4 thousand.
Evaluation:
1. If the participation charge had not have fallen in November 2025, complete unemployment, given the present employment stage, would have been 710.8 thousand slightly than the official depend of 662.3 thousand as recorded by the ABS – a distinction of 48.5 thousand staff (the ‘participation impact’).
2. With out the autumn within the participation charge, the official unemployment charge would have been 4.63 per cent slightly than its present official worth of 4.3 per cent.
3. The labour market is significantly weaker in November.
Broad labour underutilisation – rose 0.4 factors in November
- Underemployment rose 0.4 factors to six.2 per cent (rising by 62.7 thousand to 944.3 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation charge (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.4 factors to 10.5 per cent.
- General, there are 1,606.6 thousand individuals both unemployed or underemployed.
The next graph reveals the evolution of underemployment and the Broad labour underutilisation charge since 1980.
Teenage labour market – going backwards
- Whole teenage (15-19) employment fell 1.3 thousand (-0.2 per cent) in November 2025.
- Full-time employment fell 11.3 thousand (-5.6 per cent).
- Half-time employment rise 9.9 thousand (1.5 per cent).
The next desk summarises the shifts within the teenage labour marketplace for the month and during the last 12 months.
To place these adjustments right into a scale perspective (that’s, relative to measurement of the teenage labour pressure) the next graph reveals the shifts within the Employment-Inhabitants ratio for youngsters.
The Teenage Employment-Inhabitants ratios and their month-to-month adjustments in November 2025 have been:
- Males: 48.4 per cent – down 0.7 factors.
- Females: 52.9 per cent – up 0.5 factors.
- Whole: 50.6 per cent – down 0.1 level.
Conclusion
My customary warning to take care in decoding month-to-month labour pressure adjustments – they will fluctuate for plenty of causes and it’s imprudent to leap to conclusions on the again of a single month’s knowledge.
- Final month’s knowledge now looks like it gave some false hope that the downturn within the labour market that has been rising over a number of months was over. This month’s knowledge is extra according to that rising development.
- All the symptoms are trying weak – employment fell, participation fell, full-time employment fell, underemployment rose – and the general wastage of the accessible labour sources elevated by 0.4 factors (substantial change).
- It stays a indisputable fact that with 10.5 per cent of obtainable labour not getting used it’s ludicrous to speak about Australia being near full employment. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
That’s sufficient for at the moment!
(c) Copyright 2025 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.
