“Are we within the 6th, 8th, or 9th inning? I don’t know, however I think the start of this bull is additional away than the top.” –Me, 5 days in the past
I at all times hate the after-the-fact explanations of why the market is doing something on any given day — but it surely’s arduous to disregard Crude Oil over $110 per barrel,1 together with considerations about CoreWeave, and much more considerations about Personal Credit score Alt defaults.
Affirmation bias is rampant, and also you see folks cherry-picking charts that affirm their priors.
At any time when I re-read something I wrote that could be too bullish or bearish, it sends me scrambling for disconfirming proof. It’s simple to search out and share a chart that agrees along with your priors, however searching for out one thing that 1) disagrees along with your dominant considerations, 2) is from somebody you respect, and three) makes you sit up and listen is at all times tough.
The chart on the prime is by Nicholas Colas of Datatrek; it reveals 3-year rolling returns for the Nasdaq.
The implication is that bubbles don’t occur in a single day; they are typically concentrated in know-how; and that we’re not all that near the 2000 dotcom peak.
Mockingly, we’re within the fourth yr of double-digit fairness positive factors — the final time we noticed that was 1996-99. However as Colas’ chart reveals, the magnitude then was far better than right now.
Is that this conclusive? Completely not.
However I discover the train of searching for knowledge/charts inapposite to your feelings refreshing…
Beforehand:
5 Steps to Take Proper Now (October 12, 2026)
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1. I simply stuffed up for $5.15 / gal self serve, BP Final, $95 tank of fuel.
